115。RuralRides，p。446。
　　116。HecomplainsbitterlythatRuggleshadsuppressedthisinasecondedition。ProtestantReformation1850，ii。，Introduction。
　　117。PoliticalRegister，29th，Jan。1825。
　　118。ProtestantReformation，p。13。
　　119。Ibid。，p。262。
　　120。AdvicetoYoungMen，p。8。
　　121。PoliticalWorks，v，405。Ifourcensusbenotalie，thereweretwenty-sevenmillionEnglishmenin1891。
　　122。ProtestantReformation，i，311。
　　123。ColeridgeinalettertoAllsopConversations，etc。，i，20approvesoneofCobbett’sarticles，becauseitpopularisestheweightytruthofthe’hollownessofcommercialwealth。’Cobbett，hesadlyreflects，isanovermatchforLiverpool。
　　SeeCobbet’sPoliticalWorks，v，466n。
　　Chapter4：MalthusI。Malthus’sStarting-pointThepoliticalmovementrepresentedtheconfluenceofmanydifferentstreamsofagitation，Enormoussocialchangeshadgeneratedmultifariousdiscontent。Newwantsandthenewstrainsandstressesbetweenthevariouspartsofthepoliticalmechanismrequirednewadaptations。But，ifitwereinquiredwhatwastheprecisenatureoftheevils，andhowthereformofparliamentwastooperate，themostvariousanswersmightbegiven。Amostimportantlineofdivisiondidnotcoincidewiththelinebetweentherecognisedparties。OnewingoftheRadicalsagreedwithmanyConservativesinattributingthegreatevilsofthedaytotheindustrialmovementandthegrowthofcompetition，themiddle-classWhigsandtheUtilitarianswere，onthecontrary，inthoroughsympathywiththeindustrialmovement，anddesiredtolimitthefunctionsofgovernment，andtrusttoself-helpandfreecompetition。TheSocialisticmovementappearedforthepresenttobeconfinedtoafewdreamersanddemagogues。TheUtilitariansmightapprovethespiritoftheOwenites，butheldtheirschemestobechimerical。Beneaththepoliticalcontroversiestherewasthereforeasetofproblemstobeanswered；andtheUtilitariananswerdefinestheirdistinctionfromRadicalsofadifferentand，astheywouldhavesaid，unphilosophicalschool。
　　What，then，wastheviewreallytakenbytheUtilitariansoftheseunderlyingproblems?Theynotonlyhadaverydefinitetheoryinregardtothem，butinworkingitoutachievedperhapstheirmostimportantcontributiontospeculation。Beneathapoliticaltheorylies，oroughttolie，whatwenowcalla’sociology’——
　　atheoryofthatstructureofsocietywhichreallydeterminesthecharacterandtheworkingofpoliticalinstitutions。TheUtilitariantheorywasembodiedintheirpoliticaleconomy。ImusttrytodefineaswellasIcanwhatweretheessentialfirstprinciplesimplied，withoutgoingintothespecialproblemswhichwouldberelevantinahistoryofpoliticaleconomy。ThetwoleadingnamesintheliteratureofpoliticaleconomyduringthefirstquarterofthiscenturywereundoubtedlyMalthusandRicardo。ThomasRobertMalthus11766-1834wasnotoneoftheUtilitarianhand。Asaclergyman，hecouldnotsharetheiropinionofthethirty-nineArticles。
　　Moreover，hewasaWhig，notaRadical；andhewaseventaintedwithsomeeconomicheresy。Still，hebecameoneoftheprophets，ifnottheleadingprophet，oftheUtilitarians。BeliefintheMalthusiantheoryofpopulationwasthemostessentialarticleoftheirfaith，andmarkedthelineofcleavagebetweenthetwowingsoftheRadicalparty。
　　MalthuswasthesonofacountrygentlemaninSurrey。Hisfatherwasamanofstudioushabits，andoneoftheenthusiasticadmirersofRousseau，Hisstudyofmileprobablyledtotheratherdesultoryeducationofhisson，theboy，afterbeingtaughtathome，wasforatimeapupilofR。Graves1715-1804，authoroftheSpiritualQuixote，aWhigclergymanwhowasatleastorthodoxenoughtoridiculeMethodism，MalthuswasnextsenttoattendGilbertWakefield’slecturesattheWarrington’Academy，’theUnitarianplaceofeducation，andin1784wenttoJesusCollege，Cambridge，ofwhichWakefieldhadbeenafellow。ForWakefield，whohadbecomeaUnitarian，andwhowasafterwardsamartyrtopoliticalRadicalism，heappearstohaveretainedastrongrespect。AtJesus，again，MalthuswasunderFrend，whoalsowastojointheUnitarians。MalthuswasthusbroughtupundertheinfluencesofthemodifiedrationalismwhichwasrepresentedbytheUnitariansoutsidetheestablishmentandbyPaleywithin。ColeridgewasatJesuswhileMalthuswasstillafellow，andtherebecameanardentadmirerofPriestley。Malthusremainedwithinthebordersofthechurch。Itsyokewaslightenough，andhewasessentiallypredisposedtomoderateviews。Hetookhisdegreeasninthwranglerin1788，becameafellowofhiscollegein1793，tookorders，andin1798wascurateofAlbury，nearhisfather’shouseinSurrey。Malthus’shomewaswithinawalkofFarnham，whereCobbetthadbeenbornandpassedhischildhood。Hehad，therefore，beforehiseyesthesameagriculturallabourerwhosedegradationexcitedCobbetttoRadicalism。VerydifferentviewsweresuggestedtoMalthus。TherevolutionarydoctrinewasrepresentedinEnglandbythewritingsofGodwin，whosePoliticalJusticeappearedin1793andEnquirerin1797。ThesebooksnaturallyaffordedtopicsfordiscussionbetweenMalthusandhisfather。Theusualrelationsbetweenseniorandjuniorwereinverted；theelderMalthus。asbecameafollowerofRousseau，wasanenthusiast；andtheyoungertookthepartofsuggestingdoubtsanddifficulties。Heresolvedtoputdownhisargumentsuponpaper，inordertoclearhismind；andtheresultwastheEssayuponPopulation，ofwhichthefirsteditionappearedanonymouslyin1798。
　　TheargumentuponwhichMalthusreliedwasalreadypreparedforhim。Thedreamsoftherevolutionaryenthusiastssupposedeitheraneglectoftheactualconditionsofhumanlifeorabeliefthatthoseconditionscouldberadicallyalteredbytheproposedpoliticalchanges。Thecoolerreasonerwasentitledtoremindthemthattheywerelivinguponsolidearth，notindreamland。ThedifficultyofrealisingUtopiamaybepresentedinvariousways。MalthustookapointwhichhadbeennoticedbyGodwin。IntheconclusionofhisPoliticalJustice，2whiletakingafinalglanceatthecomingmillennium，GodwinreferstoadifficultysuggestedbyRobertWallace。Wallacehad3saidthatalltheevilsunderwhichmankindsuffersmightberemovedbyacommunityofproperty，wereitnotthatsuchastateofthingswouldleadtoan’excessivepopulation。’Godwinmakeslightofthedifficulty。Hethinksthatthereissome’principleinhumansocietybymeansofwhicheverythingtendstofinditsownlevelandproceedinthemostauspiciousway，whenleastinterferedwithbythemodeofregulation。’Anyhow，thereisplentyofroomontheearth，atpresent。Populationmayincreasefor’myriadsofcenturies。’Mind，asFranklinhassaid，maybecome’omnipotentovermatter’；4lifemaybeindefinitelyprolonged；ourremotedescendantswhohavefilledtheearth’willprobablyceasetopropagate’；5theywillnothavethetroubleofmakingafreshstartateverygeneration；andinthosedaystherewillbe’nowar，nocrimes，noadministrationofjustice’；andmoreover，’nodisease，anguish，melancholy，orresentment。’Briefly，weshallbeliketheangels，onlywithouttheneedlessadditionofasupremeruler。SimilarideaswereexpressedinCondorcet’sfamousTableauhistoriquedesprogrè；sdel’esprithumain，6writtenwhilehewasindailyfearofdeathbytheguillotine，andsogivingthemoststrikinginstanceonrecordoftheinvincibilityofanidealistconvictionunderthehardestpressureoffacts。
　　TheargumentofMalthusisaproductofthewholepreviouscourseofspeculation。ThequestionofpopulationhadoccupiedtheFrencheconomists。TheprofoundsocialevilsofFrancegavethestarting-pointoftheirspeculations；andoneofthegravestsymptomshadbeenthedecayofpopulationunderthelastyearsofLouisXIV。Theirgreataimwastomeetthisevilbyencouragingagriculture。
　　Itcouldnotescapethenoticeofthesimplestobserverthatifyouwouldhavemoremouthsyoumustprovidemorefood，unless，assomepiouspeopleassumed，thattaskmightbelefttoProvidence。Quesnayhadlaiditdownasoneofhisaxiomsthatthestatesmanshouldaimatprovidingsustenancebeforeaimingsimplyatstimulatingpopulation。Itfollows，accordingtoGulliver’sfamousmaxim，thatthemanwhomakestwobladesofgrassgrowwhereonegrewbeforedeservesbetterofhiscountrythanthe’wholeraceofpoliticiansputtogether。’Otherwriters，indevelopingthisthesis，haddweltupontheelasticityofpopulation。TheelderMirabeau，forexample，publishedhisAmideshommesoutraité；delapopulationin1756。Heobservesthat，giventhemeansofsubsistence，menwillmultiplylikeratsinabarn。7Thegreataxiom，hesays，8is’lamesuredelasubsistanceestcelledelapopulation。’Cultivateyourfields，andyouwillraisemen。MirabeaurepliestoHume’sessayuponthe’Populousnessofancientnations’1752，ofwhichWallace’sfirsttreatisewasacriticism。TheproblemdiscussedbyHumeandWallacehadbeencomparativelyacademical；butbyMalthus’stimethequestionhadtakenamorepracticalshape。Thesentimentalistsdenouncedluxuryasleadingtoadecayofthepopulation。TheirprevailingdoctrineisembodiedinGoldsmith’sfamouspassageintheDesertedVillage1770：
　　’Illfarestheland，tohasteningillsaprey，Wherewealthaccumulatesandmendecay。’
　　ThepoeticalversiononlyreflectedtheseriousbeliefofRadicalpoliticians。Although，aswearenowaware，thepopulationwasinfactincreasingrapidly，thebeliefprevailedamongpoliticalwritersthatitwasactuallydeclining，trustworthystatisticsdidnotexist，in1753JohnPotter，sonofthearchbishop，proposedtotheHouseofCommonsaplanforacensus。Aviolentdiscussionarose，9inthecourseofwhichitwaspointedoutthattheplanwouldinevitablyleadtotheadoptionofthe’canvasfrockandwoodenshoes。’Englishmenwouldlosetheirliberty，becomeFrenchslaves，and，whencounted，wouldnodoubtbetaxedandforciblyenlisted。ThebillpassedtheHouseofCommonsinspiteofsuchreasoning，butwasthrownoutbytheHouseofLords。Tillthefirstcensuswastakenin1801——aperiodatwhichtheabsolutenecessityofsuchknowledgehadbecomeobvious——themostelementaryfactsremaineduncertain。Waspopulationincreasingordecreasing?Thatsurelymightbeascertainable。
　　RichardPrice1723-1791
　　wasnotonlyadistinguishedmoralistandaleadingpolitician，butperhapsthebestknownwriterofhistimeuponstatisticalquestions。HehadthecreditofsuggestingPitt’ssinkingfund，10andspokewiththehighestauthorityuponfactsandfigures。Pricearguedin178011thatthepopulationofEnglandhaddiminishedbyone-fourthsincetherevolutionof1688。Asharpcontroversyfolloweduponthefewascertainabledata。
　　Thevaguenessoftheresultsshowscuriouslyhowmucheconomistshadtoargueinthedark。MalthusobservesinhisfirsteditionthathehadbeenconvincedbyreadingPricethatpopulationwasrestrainedby’viceandmisery，’asresults，notofpoliticalinstitutions，butof’ourowncreation。’12Thisgivestheessentialpointofdifference。MirabeauhaddeclaredthatthepopulationofallEuropewasdecaying，Hume’sessay，whichhecriticises，hadbeeninanswertoasimilarstatementofMontesquieu。Pricehadlearnedthatothercountrieswereincreasinginnumber，thoughEngland，heheld，wasstilldeclining。What，then，wasthecause?Thecause，repliedbothPriceandMirabeau，was’luxury，’towhichPriceaddsthespecifyEnglishevilsofthe’engrossmentoffarms’andtheenclosureofopenfields。PricehadtoadmitthattheEnglishtownshadincreased；butthiswasanadditionalevil。Thetownsincreasedsimplybydrainingthecountry；andinthetownsthemselvesthedeathsexceededthebirths。Thegreatcitieswerethegravesofmankind。Thisopinionwasstronglyheld，too，byArthurYoung，whoridiculedthegeneralfearofdepopulation，anddeclaredthatifmoneywereprovided，youcouldalwaysgetlabour，butwholookeduponthetownsasdestructivecancersinthebodypolitic。